What is disease X and why you shouldn’t be afraid of it

The pathogen did not appear. “Disease X” is an abstract name for a hypothetical disease that could become a global epidemic. It is also a concept that emphasizes that a new pandemic will come sooner or later and we must be prepared for it.

The term first appeared in 2018: then the World Health Organization (WHO) proposed a methodology for identifying diseases that pose a risk to public health due to epidemic potential. And in order for the experts to build a model that can be remade for any case, it was decided to use a placeholder name – “disease X”.

There is a lot of news about disease X now because it is being talked about at the World Economic Forum in Davos. But due to the fact that people have little information about what is happening, some media get confused and talk about an abstract disease as if it already exists.

I saw the news that disease X could claim 20 times more lives than covid. This is true?

Since it is unknown what kind of disease it will turn out to be, for the convenience of discussion at the Davos forum, WHO proposes to consider as an experiment a situation in which this potential new pandemic will be caused by a virus 20 times more deadly than Covid. So in theory this could be true. Or maybe not.

It depends on how the pathogen will be transmitted, interact with the immune system and what complications it will cause. Mortality will also be affected by humanity’s preparedness for a pandemic: whether there will be technologies for quickly diagnosing the disease, developing a vaccine and medicine, and whether there will be enough medical personnel and hospital beds to help everyone who needs it.

So this disease is not dangerous?

Right now this disease is not there. Therefore, it is not dangerous and there is no need to be afraid of it. There is no need to wear masks and gloves or drink anything for prevention due to disease X.

But it is important to take the concept itself seriously: some kind of infection will sooner or later lead to an epidemic. We need to be prepared for the fact that restrictions similar to those that existed during the covid pandemic will reappear. And they will need to be followed. First of all, for your own safety.

What then is the point of studying disease X?

This is to be prepared to study the possible cause of the next pandemic. If we launch in-depth studies of already existing diseases with high epidemiological potential, then when an epidemic occurs, humanity will have a wealth of data about the problem and information on how to deal with it.

How should disease X help us with future pandemics?

Scientists create work and research plans. This highlights gaps in knowledge. It also becomes clear what you need to pay attention to when studying. Thanks to this, the development of vaccines, treatments, diagnostic tests, as well as their clinical trials , begins early.

Michael Ryan

Executive Director of the WHO Emergencies Health Programme.

Targeted research and development of countermeasures against priority pathogens and virus families is an important element of rapid and effective response to epidemics and pandemics. Without significant investments in research and development (R&D) prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, it would not have been possible to develop safe and effective vaccines in record time.

Another important thing: WHO is looking ahead to what hygiene and ethical standards might be during the next epidemic. This will avoid disputes and disorganization when restrictions need to be introduced.

How is research into a future pandemic going now?

In response to Lifehacker’s request, WHO representatives stated that more than 300 scientists are participating in the study – they are looking in detail at 25 families of viruses and bacteria that could potentially trigger a pandemic. The list was last updated in 2018, and now the main “suspects” are :

• Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fevervirus ;
• Ebola virus;
• Marburg virus;
• Lassa fever;
• Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‑CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS);
• Nipah virus infection;
• Rift Valley fever;
• Zika virus;
• disease X.

What can you do now to be more prepared for the next pandemic?

Important measures you can take are: undergo a medical examination to assess your health, update all required vaccinations – the list will be individual for each person, depending on age, health status and previous vaccination history.

If you have a medical condition, follow your doctor’s recommendations to reduce your risks. Don’t forget to wash your hands regularly. When you are sick, stay home, and when you cough or sneeze , cover your mouth and nose with a disposable tissue or elbow.

There are a few other things you can do to boost your immune system , and they’re hilariously familiar. Yes, this is a healthy lifestyle:

• Stop smoking and alcohol.
• Eat a diet high in fruits and vegetables.
• Exercise regularly.
• Maintain a healthy weight.
• Get enough sleep.
• Try to minimize stress.